Saturday, July 31, 2004

Lo Duca trade

Yesterday, the Dodgers traded Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota and Juan Encarnacion to Florida for Hee Seop Choi, Brad Penny and a minor-league pitcher, Bill Murphy. Using the Win Shares list from The Hardball Times for this season so far:

Rank  Player         Team   POS    Bat  Pitch Field  Total  ExpWS    WSP  WSAA
 37   G Mota         LAD    P     -0.5    8.5   0.0      8      4  1.082     4
108   P Lo Duca      LAD    C      8.9    0.0   3.4     12     10   .626     2
375   J Encarnacion  LAD    OF     6.3    0.0   1.4      8      9   .429    -1

 38   H Choi         FLO    1B    11.9    0.0   1.0     13      9   .751     4
 82   B Penny        FLO    P     -2.4   10.3   0.0      8      6   .694     2
  -   B Murphy       -      P       -      -     -       -      -   -        -

Obviously Murphy hasn't established any sort of value, but is worth more than nothing. So the Dodgers gave up 28 to get 21+ Win Shares. But look at the last column, Win Shares Above Average. I'm not convinced the statistic is accurate, but I think it tells the story of the trade. Encarnacion has hurt the Dodgers because he's been taking time away from the other outfielders:

 62   M Bradley      LAD    OF     9.0    0.0   2.8     12      9   .639     3
 90   D Roberts      LAD    OF     7.4    0.0   1.4      9      7   .621     2
 97   J Werth        LAD    OF     4.7    0.0   0.5      5      3   .937     2
263   J Grabowski    LAD    OF     3.4    0.0   0.3      4      3   .538     0
546   S Green        LAD    1B     6.4    0.0   1.2      8     11   .360    -3

Ok, maybe they should have found a way to trade Green as well.

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