Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Odds of my ACV option getting exercised

As of the market close today, Alberto-Culver stands exactly at $22.50—my option's strike price. I would expect the option to be exercised if the price ends a penny or two higher on Friday. This graph shows that (if the past is any guide) there is a better-than-even chance I'll be selling my shares.

 Odds of 0% or greater gain of ACV over 2 days

The horizontal axis shows the range of gains and losses experienced by ACV shares over any two day period. The vertical axis is the odds that the price will increase by a certain percentage or greater in two days. So for a 0% or greater increase, the odds are 56% or so. Actually due to rounding errors there are more 0% gains in my data then there ought to be. (You will notice that the curve becomes vertical on the 0% line. That's not an optical illusion, but an artifact in the data.)

If the increase is 0.89% or greater, my option will lose money compared to simply selling the underlying stock on Friday. This graph shows that the odds are roughly 34% of taking a "loss" on the transaction.

Odds of 0.89% or greater gain of ACV over 2 days

Ideally, the shares will end somewhere between $22.50 and $22.70 so that I will sell the shares at a gain (odds ~ 22%). If that happens, I am ready to roll the proceeds into a new investment. If the option is not assigned, I might sell outright or (more likely) sell another covered call for April.

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