Your 2005 LA Dodgers

I recently finished Win Shares, so I got curious how the new Dodgers compare to the old Dodgers. First, the additions:

Player         Team   POS    Bat  Pitch Field  ExpWS    WSP   WSAA Total
J Drew         ATL    OF    29.4    0.0   4.8     17   .986     17    34
J Kent         HOU    2B    15.9    0.0   7.4     16   .711      7    23
J Valentin     CHW    SS     8.4    0.0   6.1     13   .551      1    14
R Ledee        PHI    OF     4.7    0.0   1.1      3   .819      2     6
D Lowe         BOS    P      0.2    5.4   0.0     10   .272     -5     6
P Bako         CHC    C     -0.2    0.0   1.6      4   .166     -3     1

That works out to be roughly 28 wins. Now, here's what they lost:

A Beltre       LAD    3B    31.2    0.0   6.1     18  1.031     19    37
A Cora         LAD    2B    11.9    0.0   5.1     14   .622      3    17
S Green        LAD    1B    13.7    0.0   2.4     18   .438     -2    16
J Hernandez    LAD    2B     7.5    0.0   2.3      7   .741      3    10
S Finley       LAD    OF     7.1    0.0   2.0      7   .673      2     9
S Finley       ARI    OF     6.7    0.0   2.9     12   .399     -2     9
J Lima         LAD    P     -1.1   10.6   0.0      8   .583      1     9
R Ventura      LAD    1B     5.3    0.2   0.7      5   .681      2     6
B Mayne        ARI    C      0.4    0.0   1.0      3   .242     -2     1
B Mayne        LAD    C     -1.4    0.0   1.4      3   .000     -3     0
H Nomo         LAD    P     -1.1   -5.4   0.0      4  -.808    -10    -6

That's 38 wins (or 36 if you give the Dodgers credit for losing Nomo). I included Finley and Mayne's stats with the Diamondbacks because if they had stayed Dodgers and contributed the same in 2005 as they did in 2004, the Dodgers would be beneficiaries of the entire season's statistics.

WSAA is a Hardball Times stat (Win Shares Above Average) that tries to correct for players who get a lot of playing time and some Win Shares, but hurt their team overall. The new additions increase wins above average by about 6 and the guys who are leaving add about 4. The discrepancy is largely due to guys like Shawn Green, who added 16 win shares but was expected to contribute 18. In other words, this off-season has been largely about replacing players who contribute less then they should for players who contribute more. The two biggest exceptions are Beltre and Lowe.

To quantify that a bit more, the new players were expected to get 63 win shares and actually got 84. The old players were expected to get 99 win shares and got 108. That works out to 0.667 Win Share rate versus 0.545. Assuming players do about the same they did last year, the new Dodgers should be a better than the old.

Here are the players who haven't moved (as far as I can tell):

C Izturis      LAD    SS    18.2    0.0   7.1     20   .642      6    25
M Bradley      LAD    OF    13.1    0.0   4.4     16   .537      1    17
E Gagne        LAD    P     -0.1   16.1   0.0      8   .979      8    16
J Werth        LAD    OF    10.5    0.0   1.6      9   .683      3    12
O Perez        LAD    P     -2.3   14.6   0.0      9   .659      3    12
J Weaver       LAD    P     -0.8   12.6   0.0     10   .573      2    12
G Carrara      LAD    P     -0.1    6.7   0.0      3  1.025      3     7
D Sanchez      LAD    P      0.2    5.7   0.0      4   .671      1     6
W Alvarez      LAD    P     -1.3    7.2   0.0      6   .491      0     6
K Ishii        LAD    P     -1.3    7.1   0.0      8   .356     -2     6
Y Brazoban     LAD    P      0.0    4.5   0.0      2  1.187      3     4
O Saenz        LAD    1B     3.8    0.0   0.3      3   .660      1     4
J Grabowski    LAD    OF     3.3    0.0   0.5      5   .398     -1     4
E Dessens      LAD    P     -0.1    1.7   0.0      1   .775      1     2
D Dreifort     LAD    P      0.0    2.2   0.0      3   .321     -1     2
M Kida         LAD    P      0.0    0.7   0.0      0  1.482      0     1
B Penny        FLO    P     -2.4   10.6   0.0      6   .662      2     8
B Penny        LAD    P     -0.1    0.8   0.0      1   .639      0     1
D Ross         LAD    C     -0.5    0.0   1.6      5   .103     -4     1
R Myers        LAD    P      0.0    0.3   0.0      0  1.482      0     0
J Flores       LAD    3B    -0.1    0.0   0.0      0  -.276      0     0
M Venafro      LAD    P      0.0    0.3   0.0      1   .295      0     0
A Perez        LAD    2B     0.1    0.0   0.1      0   .161      0     0
T Wilson       LAD    C     -0.2    0.0   0.1      0  -.356      0     0
S Stewart      LAD    P      0.0    0.3   0.0      1   .191      0     0
J Thurston     LAD    2B    -0.1    0.0   0.0      0  -.062      0     0
C Chen         LAD    OF    -0.6    0.0   0.2      0  -.879     -1     0
B Falkenborg   LAD    P     -0.1   -0.7   0.0      1  -.481     -1     0
E Jackson      LAD    P      0.2   -0.6   0.0      1  -.143     -2     0
H Choi         LAD    1B     0.1    0.0   0.3      2   .090     -2     0

The still-Dodgers had 146 Win Shares and were expected to get 125. When you add in the new players 84, you could estimate that the Dodgers will get about 77 wins. Ultimately, the Dodgers need to distribute more playing time to more efficient players in order to improve in 2005.

And for completeness, here are the guys traded during the 2004 season:

P Lo Duca      LAD    C     10.1    0.0   5.3     10   .735      5    15
P Lo Duca      FLO    C      4.6    0.0   1.8      6   .557      1     6
D Roberts      LAD    OF     9.1    0.0   1.4      7   .722      3    11
D Roberts      BOS    OF     1.4    0.0   1.0      3   .452      0     2
G Mota         LAD    P     -0.5    8.6   0.0      4  1.057      4     8
G Mota         FLO    P      0.6    2.3   0.0      3   .546      0     3
J Encarnacio   LAD    OF     6.1    0.0   1.6     10   .394     -2     8
J Encarnacio   FLO    OF     4.1    0.0   1.2      5   .522      0     5
T Martin       LAD    P      0.0    1.2   0.0      2   .352     -1     1
T Martin       ATL    P      0.0    1.2   0.0      1   .460      0     1